招商证券:下半年人民币相对美元的升值前景基本确立
从红外云图看,台风“杜苏芮”是个超级标准的台风标志符号。(中央气象台)","multimedia":{"img_url":["https://n.sinaimg.cn/zhibo/462/w254h208/20230728/a41d-eac811f5d5a8d7dfbd5c1ad84bc4afc8.jpg","https://n.sinaimg.cn/zhibo/237/w690h1147/20230728/e4e9-3bea0faa939abd889d083116eede8a4a.jpg"]},"commentid":"live:finance-152-3190831:0","compere_id":0,"creator":"yongsheng6@staff.sina.com.cn","mender":"yongsheng6@staff.sina.com.cn","create_time":"2023-07-28 08:08:32","update_time":"2023-07-28 08:08:38","is_need_check":"1","check_time":"2023-07-28 08:08:34","check_status":"1","check_user":"yongsheng6@staff.sina.com.cn","is_delete":0,"top_value":0,"is_focus":0,"source_content_id":"0","anchor_image_url":"","anchor":"直播员","ext":"{"stocks":[],"needPush":false,"needAIPush":false,"needCMSLink":true,"needCalender":false,"needProvince":"0","docurl":"https:\/\/finance.sina.com.cn\/7x24\/2023-07-28\/doc-imzeexqe2360602.shtml","docid":"mzeexqe2360602"}","old_live_cid":"0","tab":"","tag":[{"id":"8","name":"其他"}],"like_nums":0,"comment_list":{"list":[],"total":0,"thread_show":0,"qreply":0,"qreply_show":0,"show":0},"docurl":"https://finance.sina.cn/7x24/2023-07-28/detail-imzeexqe2360602.d.html","rich_text_nick_to_url":[],"rich_text_nick_to_routeUri":[],"compere_info":""},{"id":3190830,"zhibo_id":152,"type":0,"rich_text":"【招商证券:下半年人民币相对美元的升值前景基本确立】招商证券研报表示,议息会议上鲍威尔提及明年的降息前景,表明政策拐点方向已然明朗。预计年内不仅结束加息、甚至有必要结束缩表乃至给出降息指引。一旦如此就是对经济转弱的确认,届时美股反而有调整压力。对国内来说,下半年人民币相对美元的升值前景基本确立,未来一年国内权益资产的确定性正在增强。1)7月政治局会议释放积极信号;2)下半年国内经济大概率好于第二季度;3)服务部门转弱将拖累美国经济,但地产与制造业等实物部门将继续向好,进而8-12月国内出口增速将持续回升。
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