中信证券：2022年或是大宗商品见顶之年，大宗商品价格中枢或将维持高位

新浪期货今日研报精选。","multimedia":{"img_url":["https://n.sinaimg.cn/zhibo/261/w750h5111/20220527/9784-9a191484337461fdebc98386096a5a36.jpg"]},"commentid":"live:finance-152-2685595:0","compere_id":0,"creator":"yujian@staff.sina.com.cn","mender":"yujian@staff.sina.com.cn","create_time":"2022-05-27 08:39:24","update_time":"2022-05-27 08:39:24","is_need_check":"0","check_time":"1970-01-01 08:00:01","check_status":"1","check_user":"","is_delete":0,"top_value":0,"is_focus":0,"source_content_id":"0","anchor_image_url":"","anchor":"直播员","ext":"{"stocks":[],"needPush":false,"needAIPush":false,"needCMSLink":true,"needCalender":false,"needProvince":"0"}","old_live_cid":"0","tag":[{"id":"2","name":"行业"}],"like_nums":0,"comment_list":{"list":[],"total":0,"thread_show":0,"qreply":0,"qreply_show":0,"show":0},"docurl":"","rich_text_nick_to_url":[],"rich_text_nick_to_routeUri":[],"compere_info":""},{"id":2685594,"zhibo_id":152,"type":0,"rich_text":"【中信证券：2022年或是大宗商品见顶之年，大宗商品价格中枢或将维持高位】中信证券表示，2020年全球疫情爆发后，全球大宗商品市场迎来全面上涨，根本原因在于供需矛盾突出，即需求快速反弹、供给修复缓慢。此外，俄乌冲突作为催化剂加剧了供需的错配，大宗商品之间也通过“投入-产出”关系形成涨价的联动效应。展望后续，短期内，来自俄乌冲突的不确定性仍是大宗商品市场最主要的上行风险，而从中长期视角来看，全球经济的衰退成为商品市场的下行风险。综上，2022年或是大宗商品见顶之年，大宗商品价格中枢或将维持高位，其中包括原油、谷物、化肥、铝等在内的俄乌两国主要出口商品或具备较强的抗跌属性。进入2023年，大宗商品价格有望逐步回落，但相较于2019年疫情爆发前的水平，其价格的绝对值或仍在高位。